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MONEY & MARKETS

MONEY & MARKETS

The worst year in this streak included Black Monday — and still finished positive

Nov 4, 2026

•

1 min read

The worst year in this streak included Black Monday — and still finished positive

Up 1.1% after the 1986 midterm. That is the floor. Every other year did better.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

For every dollar your savings earns, inflation takes ten

Oct 30, 2026

•

1 min read

For every dollar your savings earns, inflation takes ten

That's the actual arithmetic of keeping money in an average savings account right now.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Only one reading in 74 years has ever come in lower

Oct 26, 2026

•

1 min read

Only one reading in 74 years has ever come in lower

The University of Michigan has been asking this question since 1952. This month's answer ranks near the very bottom.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The income group that feels the least financial pressure earns $100K to $200K

Oct 22, 2026

•

1 min read

The income group that feels the least financial pressure earns $100K to $200K

You can outrun your tax bracket. You apparently cannot outrun your expenses.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The dot-com bubble was less concentrated than your index fund is right now

Oct 20, 2026

•

1 min read

The dot-com bubble was less concentrated than your index fund is right now

Two of those ten names control more of your retirement than the bottom 200 stocks combined.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The last time your dollar wasn't losing to prices: February 2021

Oct 14, 2026

•

1 min read

The last time your dollar wasn't losing to prices: February 2021

The Fed just raised rates to 4% last month and CPI is still running nearly double the target.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The last time Treasuries beat the S&P like this was 2002

Oct 9, 2026

•

2 min read

The last time Treasuries beat the S&P like this was 2002

Outside a brief window in late 2023, this spread had been closed since before the first iPhone existed.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Gold Is Down $1,450 an Ounce From Its January Peak

Oct 7, 2026

•

1 min read

Gold Is Down $1,450 an Ounce From Its January Peak

It hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January. By October 5 it was at $4,139. That's 26% off the top.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The Recession Warning Threshold Is 80. We're at 63.6.

Oct 1, 2026

•

2 min read

The Recession Warning Threshold Is 80. We're at 63.6.

That 16-point gap is not noise — and the index has been below the danger line every single month since February 2025.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Two weeks after the rate hike, Michigan asked Americans about next year's prices

Sep 28, 2026

•

1 min read

Two weeks after the rate hike, Michigan asked Americans about next year's prices

The Fed just raised rates to 4% to bring that number down. The survey came back higher.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The last time this yield stayed above 5%, Bear Stearns was still a company

Sep 25, 2026

•

1 min read

The last time this yield stayed above 5%, Bear Stearns was still a company

It briefly touched 5% in October 2023 and retreated fast. At 5.11%, it is holding.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

In 2032, your Social Security check drops 22% without a single vote in Washington

Sep 22, 2026

•

2 min read

In 2032, your Social Security check drops 22% without a single vote in Washington

It is written into the existing statute — the cut triggers the moment the reserves are gone.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The prior five years cost $9,430. These five cost $21,911

Sep 15, 2026

•

1 min read

The prior five years cost $9,430. These five cost $21,911

That is more than double the damage of the entire 2016–2021 stretch, in roughly the same number of years.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Americans say they need $1,460,000. The median worker has $107,269.

Sep 10, 2026

•

1 min read

Americans say they need $1,460,000. The median worker has $107,269.

That's a gap of more than $1.3 million — and the stock market just had one of its best stretches in recent memory.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Six cuts. Then 162,000 jobs. Now a hike.

Sep 7, 2026

•

1 min read

Six cuts. Then 162,000 jobs. Now a hike.

That surprise sent rate-hike odds to 63% before markets closed Friday.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Your stocks are priced for perfection. The Fed just picked up the gun.

Sep 2, 2026

•

2 min read

Your stocks are priced for perfection. The Fed just picked up the gun.

It has only been this stretched once in all that data. December 1999, right before the crash.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

A dollar from January 2020 now buys about 79 cents worth of goods

Aug 31, 2026

•

1 min read

A dollar from January 2020 now buys about 79 cents worth of goods

65 consecutive months above that target, and J.P. Morgan now expects rates to go higher next month.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Your gold ounce cost $1,517 in January 2020. Look at it now.

Aug 24, 2026

•

1 min read

Your gold ounce cost $1,517 in January 2020. Look at it now.

Same dollar that bought it back then has lost nearly a quarter of its worth since.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The buyer that just walked away

Aug 21, 2026

•

1 min read

The buyer that just walked away

The level it left tells you everything about this week.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

CPI came in clean. The 30-year didn't care.

Aug 12, 2026

•

1 min read

CPI came in clean. The 30-year didn't care.

Inflation matched Wall Street's forecast on the nose. The long bond stayed at 2007 levels anyway.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Your 401(k) had its best week in four months last Friday

Aug 11, 2026

•

1 min read

Your 401(k) had its best week in four months last Friday

The reason it happened is the part that stings a little.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The Social Security trust fund deadline just moved up one quarter

Jul 13, 2026

•

1 min read

The Social Security trust fund deadline just moved up one quarter

Last month the Trustees moved the deadline up yet again. The average retiree loses $458 a month the moment it happens.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The yield that preceded the last crash

Jul 10, 2026

•

1 min read

The yield that preceded the last crash

Same level. Different Fed. Same warning.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

One in eight dollars charged to American credit cards hasn't been paid in three months

Jul 8, 2026

•

2 min read

One in eight dollars charged to American credit cards hasn't been paid in three months

The Great Recession peak was 13.7%. The gap between that low point and right now is shrinking fast.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

Three months ago your portfolio was bleeding. Then Q2 happened.

Jul 2, 2026

•

1 min read

Three months ago your portfolio was bleeding. Then Q2 happened.

If you held through the Q1 selloff, those 90 days handed you more than a typical full year of returns.

Read More

MONEY & MARKETS

The worst year in this streak included Black Monday — and still finished positive

Nov 4, 2026

•

1 min read

The worst year in this streak included Black Monday — and still finished positive

Up 1.1% after the 1986 midterm. That is the floor. Every other year did better.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

For every dollar your savings earns, inflation takes ten

Oct 30, 2026

•

1 min read

For every dollar your savings earns, inflation takes ten

That's the actual arithmetic of keeping money in an average savings account right now.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Only one reading in 74 years has ever come in lower

Oct 26, 2026

•

1 min read

Only one reading in 74 years has ever come in lower

The University of Michigan has been asking this question since 1952. This month's answer ranks near the very bottom.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The income group that feels the least financial pressure earns $100K to $200K

Oct 22, 2026

•

1 min read

The income group that feels the least financial pressure earns $100K to $200K

You can outrun your tax bracket. You apparently cannot outrun your expenses.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The dot-com bubble was less concentrated than your index fund is right now

Oct 20, 2026

•

1 min read

The dot-com bubble was less concentrated than your index fund is right now

Two of those ten names control more of your retirement than the bottom 200 stocks combined.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The last time your dollar wasn't losing to prices: February 2021

Oct 14, 2026

•

1 min read

The last time your dollar wasn't losing to prices: February 2021

The Fed just raised rates to 4% last month and CPI is still running nearly double the target.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The last time Treasuries beat the S&P like this was 2002

Oct 9, 2026

•

2 min read

The last time Treasuries beat the S&P like this was 2002

Outside a brief window in late 2023, this spread had been closed since before the first iPhone existed.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Gold Is Down $1,450 an Ounce From Its January Peak

Oct 7, 2026

•

1 min read

Gold Is Down $1,450 an Ounce From Its January Peak

It hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January. By October 5 it was at $4,139. That's 26% off the top.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The Recession Warning Threshold Is 80. We're at 63.6.

Oct 1, 2026

•

2 min read

The Recession Warning Threshold Is 80. We're at 63.6.

That 16-point gap is not noise — and the index has been below the danger line every single month since February 2025.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Two weeks after the rate hike, Michigan asked Americans about next year's prices

Sep 28, 2026

•

1 min read

Two weeks after the rate hike, Michigan asked Americans about next year's prices

The Fed just raised rates to 4% to bring that number down. The survey came back higher.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The last time this yield stayed above 5%, Bear Stearns was still a company

Sep 25, 2026

•

1 min read

The last time this yield stayed above 5%, Bear Stearns was still a company

It briefly touched 5% in October 2023 and retreated fast. At 5.11%, it is holding.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

In 2032, your Social Security check drops 22% without a single vote in Washington

Sep 22, 2026

•

2 min read

In 2032, your Social Security check drops 22% without a single vote in Washington

It is written into the existing statute — the cut triggers the moment the reserves are gone.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The prior five years cost $9,430. These five cost $21,911

Sep 15, 2026

•

1 min read

The prior five years cost $9,430. These five cost $21,911

That is more than double the damage of the entire 2016–2021 stretch, in roughly the same number of years.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Americans say they need $1,460,000. The median worker has $107,269.

Sep 10, 2026

•

1 min read

Americans say they need $1,460,000. The median worker has $107,269.

That's a gap of more than $1.3 million — and the stock market just had one of its best stretches in recent memory.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Six cuts. Then 162,000 jobs. Now a hike.

Sep 7, 2026

•

1 min read

Six cuts. Then 162,000 jobs. Now a hike.

That surprise sent rate-hike odds to 63% before markets closed Friday.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Your stocks are priced for perfection. The Fed just picked up the gun.

Sep 2, 2026

•

2 min read

Your stocks are priced for perfection. The Fed just picked up the gun.

It has only been this stretched once in all that data. December 1999, right before the crash.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

A dollar from January 2020 now buys about 79 cents worth of goods

Aug 31, 2026

•

1 min read

A dollar from January 2020 now buys about 79 cents worth of goods

65 consecutive months above that target, and J.P. Morgan now expects rates to go higher next month.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Your gold ounce cost $1,517 in January 2020. Look at it now.

Aug 24, 2026

•

1 min read

Your gold ounce cost $1,517 in January 2020. Look at it now.

Same dollar that bought it back then has lost nearly a quarter of its worth since.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The buyer that just walked away

Aug 21, 2026

•

1 min read

The buyer that just walked away

The level it left tells you everything about this week.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

CPI came in clean. The 30-year didn't care.

Aug 12, 2026

•

1 min read

CPI came in clean. The 30-year didn't care.

Inflation matched Wall Street's forecast on the nose. The long bond stayed at 2007 levels anyway.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

Your 401(k) had its best week in four months last Friday

Aug 11, 2026

•

1 min read

Your 401(k) had its best week in four months last Friday

The reason it happened is the part that stings a little.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The Social Security trust fund deadline just moved up one quarter

Jul 13, 2026

•

1 min read

The Social Security trust fund deadline just moved up one quarter

Last month the Trustees moved the deadline up yet again. The average retiree loses $458 a month the moment it happens.

One Number
One Number

MONEY & MARKETS

The yield that preceded the last crash

Jul 10, 2026

•

1 min read

The yield that preceded the last crash

Same level. Different Fed. Same warning.

MONEY & MARKETS

One in eight dollars charged to American credit cards hasn't been paid in three months

Jul 8, 2026

•

2 min read

One in eight dollars charged to American credit cards hasn't been paid in three months

The Great Recession peak was 13.7%. The gap between that low point and right now is shrinking fast.

MONEY & MARKETS

Three months ago your portfolio was bleeding. Then Q2 happened.

Jul 2, 2026

•

1 min read

Three months ago your portfolio was bleeding. Then Q2 happened.

If you held through the Q1 selloff, those 90 days handed you more than a typical full year of returns.

One Number
One Number

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