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  • Six cuts. Then 162,000 jobs. Now a hike.

Six cuts. Then 162,000 jobs. Now a hike.

That surprise sent rate-hike odds to 63% before markets closed Friday.

One Number
One Number

Sep 7, 2026

63

MONEY & MARKETS • STOCK MARKET & INVESTING

Friday’s jobs report landed like a grenade. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August—three times what Wall Street expected. Within hours, traders pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16 to 63%. The Fed cut rates six times in two bursts—three in late 2024, three in late 2025—for 175 basis points of easing total. Now there’s a better-than-coin-flip chance they reverse course and raise them. If you own bonds, carry a mortgage, or hold a dollar in your retirement account, September 16 just became the most important day of the year.

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❝

Six cuts, 175 basis points of easing, and the market just decided the next move is a raise.

Source: CME FedWatch Tool via Bloomberg, Sept. 4, 2026; BLS Employment Situation, released Sept. 4, 2026
One number. Every morning.
— Jack Corbin

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