TRADE • NORTH AMERICA
Two days ago, the Trump administration declined to extend the USMCA — the trade deal he negotiated himself to replace NAFTA. That deal covers $1.59 trillion in goods flowing between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico every year — nearly four times all U.S.-China trade. The auto parts in your truck, the Canadian oil in your tank, the produce in your grocery aisle… all of it now enters a decade of annual reviews where any country can walk away with six months’ notice. The deal’s still in effect. But ‘still in effect’ isn’t the same as ‘renewed.’
Nearly four dollars of American trade crosses those two borders for every single dollar that crosses the Pacific to China — and as of Wednesday, the deal governing all of it is on a ten-year clock.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Trade in Goods Data, 2025
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