MONEY & MARKETS • FED POLICY
Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed chair on Friday. Trump picked him expecting rate cuts. The bond market just gave him a different script. Fed funds futures now price a 51% chance of a rate HIKE by December — not a cut. Three months ago, traders were betting on deeper cuts ahead. That was three months ago… three months. Iran, oil, and a CPI print near multi-year highs flipped it. Your mortgage, your bond fund, your savings yield — they all just got rewritten while you weren’t looking.
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The new Fed chair was sworn in to cut rates and the market is betting his first move is the opposite direction.
