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  • The gap between fear and fact just opened up

The gap between fear and fact just opened up

It got safer. You felt the opposite.

One Number
One Number

May 7, 2026

One Number — May 7, 2026 — Part 1
MAY 7, 2026 ONE NUMBER
69%
AMERICANS WHO SAID CRIME WAS RISING, 2005–2024
U.S. CRIME RATE OVER THAT SPAN: NEARLY CUT IN HALF
One Number — May 7, 2026 — Part 2
PEOPLE & SOCIETY • CRIME & PERCEPTION

Sixty-nine percent. That’s the share of Americans who said, on average, that crime was rising every single year from 2005 to 2024. Twenty straight years of dread. Now the actual data: crime per 100,000 people fell from 3,973 to 2,119 over the same stretch. Cut. In. Half. You watched cable news. You read the local paper. You bolted the door at night. And the country was getting safer the whole time. The fear was real. The data was real. They just weren’t talking to each other.

If you took the over on crime every year for the last twenty, you went 0-for-20 against the FBI.

Source: Council on Criminal Justice, “Perception and Reality: Understanding Crime Concerns in the United States,” May 2026; Gallup Social Survey; FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data, 2005–2024.

One number. Every morning.

— Jack Corbin

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