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Even the Fed didn't see this one coming

Wholesale prices just did something they haven't done since 2022.

One Number
One Number

May 14, 2026

One Number — May 14, 2026 — Part 1
MAY 14, 2026 ONE NUMBER
1.4%
U.S. PRODUCER PRICES, ONE-MONTH JUMP • APRIL 2026
WALL STREET’S FORECAST: 0.5%
One Number — May 14, 2026 — Part 2
MONEY & MARKETS • PURCHASING POWER

Wholesale prices just jumped 1.4% in a single month. Economists were betting on 0.5%. They were off by almost three times. That means everything moving through the pipeline — the diesel hauling your groceries, the steel in your appliances, the chemicals in your medicine — got more expensive at a pace this country hasn’t seen since March 2022. And the part that should make you sit up: producer prices lead consumer prices by about three to six months. What businesses paid in April… you’ll pay this summer.

Producer prices typically arrive at the checkout aisle within six months — meaning April’s shock is your August grocery bill.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index — Final Demand, April 2026 (released May 13, 2026)

One number. Every morning.

— Jack Corbin

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